CELLULAR AUTOMATON WITH PERCOLATION AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM: ENTROPY APPROACH
نویسندگان
چکیده
A model of information confrontation based on a two-dimensional percolation-cellular automaton closed oriented surface is constructed and implemented programmatically. Numerical experiments were performed. theorem the finiteness completely positive topological entropy given cellular formulated proved. As an applied application automaton, retrospective forecast results Russian Presidential election in 2018 was made both Russia as whole two regions Russia. The General logic using follows. At preparatory stage, region built, which field automaton. In case regions, anamorphic mapping used, each territorial-administrative unit represented by certain number cells that occupy connected area automaton; areas these are proportional to voters, if possible, geographical neighbors preserved. color cell corresponds political position; for example, city has 60% support President, then this percentage red. initial data calculation, sociological surveys current President conducted 6-12 months before taken; dynamics system modeled formed stationary solution, shares corresponding supporters opponents well non-appearance, calculated; taken results. Those way showed significantly lower accuracy than forecasts standard methods last days election. However, they can be used early forecasting. reason difference opinions voters immediately prior elections determined campaign, long - prevalence embeddedness value orientations, incorporated model.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Computational mathematics and information technologies
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2587-8999']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.23947/2587-8999-2021-1-2-61-71